Federer's best year begins

January 1, 2007

I think this date marks the beginning of what will be the best year in Federer's tennis career. When I say this, I am completely aware of what he has achieved in the last 3 years and how difficult it will be to surpass that .. I am also aware of the threat Nadal provides and also of the improved Roddick after getting the services of the great Jimmy Connors as coach.

Federer lost 5 matches in 2006 .. 4 to Nadal and 1 to Murray. The reason why he lost to Murray is quite well known to the entire community and so, that loss is hardly something to worry about. Youngsters like Gasquet, Baghdatis and Murray will provide threat to Federer at some point of time, but I don't think these players can cause any harm to Federer in 2007.

After that win in the Master Series against Nadal, I don't see even Nadal troubling Federer much this year (even on clay). I think Federer has a decent chance of winning the Roland Garros year. According to me, Federer was the best player even in the Roland Garros 2006 (Yes, better than Nadal). What prevented him from winning that title and getting his name written in history books as the 'greatest ever' was probably some kind of a mental barrier that he had when playing against Nadal. If this is to be believed then I guess the mental barrier should be overcome by now(at least to some extent) after the last 3 encounters of Federer with Nadal in which Nadal has been beaten by "The Emperor". I just hope Nadal plays at least some tournaments this year before the clay season and not just come out of the den when the clay season begins, like last year.

The match between Roddick and Federer at the Master Series seems to suggest that Roddick can defeat Federer once in a while but I don't think this would be possible because it will take quite some time for Roddick to begin to believe he can defeat Federer.

Federer has been breaking a lot of records. One record which has stood unbroken is John McEnroe's record of the highest winning percentage (82-3). 2007, I think will be the year he will break this record as well. Federer will start as favorite for each of the 4 grand slams.Here is what I think will be the odds for each of the 4 GSs.

Australian Open (Federer 70%, Others 30%)
French Open (Federer 50%, Nadal 48%, Others 2%)
Wimbledon (Federer 90%, Others 10%)
US Open (Federer 90%, Roddick 5%, Others 5%)

I would have liked to put Safin's name in this list, but he is a little too inconsistent to be able to win a Grand Slam title (which requires winning 7 matches in a row)